On December 12th, Global Asia Research Center, Waseda University hosted a workshop entitled Russia’s war in Ukraine: Historical background, Causes, and future scenarios, presented by Alexander Bukh, Associate Professor at Victoria University of Wellington.
Professor Bukh started his lecture by introducing the declaration of the “Special Military Operation” by President Putin, then pointed out that initially, Putin regarded “de-Nazification” as the purpose of the war. There were two crucial elements in the declaration. First, the “de-Nazification” was directed at the Russian audience. The reason is that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian national identity was formed by the memory of the war with Nazi Germany and the victory against it. Second, this declaration was based on the idea that Ukraine was not a nation; therefore, Russia and Ukraine should be unified.
Then, Professor Bukh went on to further explain the historical background of the war. Until 1991, Ukraine did not exist as an independent country. However, the Ukrainian language and culture were not purged under the Soviet policy of Indianization. So as unintended consequences, the Soviet policy helped establish the idea that Ukraine was a nation with its own culture and language. After the independence of Ukraine in 1991, the relationship between Russia and Ukraine was rocky. There was even a political divide between a pro-Russian and pro-European faction in Ukraine.
Professor Bukh then analyzed the causes of the conflict. He pointed out two aspects―the national identity clash and the generation gap. While Russian national identity was held mainly by an older generation who tended to view Russia as a great power, the young generation mainly held Ukrainian identity and saw Ukraine as “not Russia” but a part of Europe. In addition, the change of power balance in the international system also exacerbated the conflict. In the 21st century, the power of the west declined relatively, and Russia has re-emerged as a major power.
In the last part of the presentation, Professor Bukh predicted the possible future scenarios. It is possible that Russia would retreat to the Pre-Feb 24th border, and the Moscow regime would not be changed.
After the presentation, many audiences asked questions and discussed various topics.